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Exchange-verified track record

Every trade. Wins, losses, and stop-outs alike.

The complete record of every position since our v1.0 methodology launch on Apr 23, 2026, reconstructed line-by-line from Kalshi's own settlement and fill records - the exchange's data, not ours. Earlier experimental trades and sub-$8 thin-market SKIPs are excluded and documented in the methodology.

Live results · Apr 23 - Aug 1, 2026

90.5%
Win rate
201-21
Win - Loss
222
Settled trades
+$178.11
Net P&L
How this is verified. Each row is the realized, per-position net - total proceeds plus settlement, minus what we paid and minus exchange fees. Stop-loss exits are counted in full at the price we actually got out, so a market we exited early shows its true cash result, not the outcome we would have had if we'd held. Nothing is rounded up, hidden, or back-filled.

Every position is a NO bet: the engine fades temperature bands the market has priced too high. The edge per trade is small by design - we win often and keep losses tight. Position sizes during this live validation window were modest - about $32 average, from roughly $660 of working capital that recycles across trades daily (about $5,700 total staked). The net above works out to roughly +32% on capital over the window, averaging near 10% a month - with high month-to-month variance and no guarantee it persists.

Date Market (daily high) Call Result Net
Apr 23Miami · >82°NOWIN+$0.46
Apr 23Chicago · >85°NOWIN+$0.18
Apr 24Miami · >85°NOLOSS-$0.17
Apr 25Miami · >86°NOWIN+$0.44
Apr 26Los Angeles · >69°NOWIN+$0.18
Apr 27Los Angeles · >69°NOWIN+$0.37
Apr 28Miami · >87°NOWIN+$1.03
Apr 30Miami · >90°NOWIN+$0.65
Apr 30Denver · <42°NOWIN+$0.46
May 1Miami · >91°NOWIN+$0.18
May 1Chicago · >55°NOWIN+$0.18
May 1Los Angeles · <68°NOWIN+$0.27
May 2Denver · >74°NOWIN+$0.44
May 2Chicago · >58°NOWIN+$0.27
May 2Los Angeles · <65°NOWIN+$0.37
May 2Philadelphia · <60°NOWIN+$0.37
May 3Philadelphia · <60°NOWIN+$2.28
May 3Denver · >78°NOWIN+$2.35
May 3Chicago · >73°NOWIN+$0.27
May 4Chicago · >83°NOWIN+$0.87
May 4New York · >77°NOWIN+$1.28
May 5Austin · >95°NOWIN+$0.85
May 6Miami · >91°NOWIN+$1.41
May 6Chicago · >62°NOWIN+$1.31
May 7Los Angeles · <68°NOWIN+$1.75
May 7Miami · >94°NOWIN+$3.06
May 7Chicago · >65°NOWIN+$1.40
May 8Los Angeles · <68°NOLOSS-$9.62
May 9Miami · >94°NOWIN+$2.28
May 9Los Angeles · <69°NOWIN+$2.28
May 10Miami · >93°NOWIN+$2.06
May 11Los Angeles · <69°NOLOSS-$0.15
May 11Miami · >93°NOWIN+$1.05
May 12Los Angeles · <63°NOWIN+$2.61
May 13Los Angeles · <61°NOWIN+$0.02
May 18Chicago · 86-87°NOWIN+$0.03
May 20Denver · 54-55°NOLOSS-$1.23
May 20Los Angeles · 75-76°NOWIN+$2.55
May 20Chicago · 57-58°NOWIN+$0.30
May 20Denver · 60-61°NOWIN+$0.80
May 21Chicago · 58-59°NOWIN+$16.47
May 21Austin · 77-78°NOWIN+$3.52
May 21Los Angeles · 70-71°NOWIN+$0.56
May 22Los Angeles · 70-71°NOWIN+$9.57
May 22New York · 63-64°NOWIN+$11.88
May 22Chicago · <64°NOWIN+$4.14
May 23Los Angeles · 69-70°NOLOSS-$23.91
May 23Los Angeles · 65-66°NOWIN+$11.44
May 24Los Angeles · 64-65°NOWIN+$8.66
May 24New York · 62-63°NOWIN+$5.60
May 24Austin · 82-83°NOWIN+$7.77
May 25Chicago · 86-87°NOWIN+$0.84
May 25Austin · 93-94°NOWIN+$0.05
May 25Chicago · 88-89°NOWIN+$4.09
May 26Chicago · 89-90°NOWIN+$0.62
May 27Chicago · 81-82°NOLOSS-$16.99
May 28Denver · 80-81°NOWIN+$4.42
May 28Los Angeles · <65°NOWIN+$0.05
May 29Denver · 85-86°NOWIN+$0.08
May 29Los Angeles · 66-67°NOWIN+$7.42
May 30Miami · >92°NOWIN+$3.87
May 31Denver · 83-84°NOWIN+$15.44
Jun 2Denver · 83-84°NOWIN+$0.28
Jun 3Austin · <86°NOWIN+$0.84
Jun 3Miami · >89°NOLOSS-$16.86
Jun 4Miami · >86°NOWIN+$5.32
Jun 4Austin · 90-91°NOWIN+$8.66
Jun 5Austin · 89-90°NOWIN+$0.70
Jun 6New York · <87°NOWIN+$4.74
Jun 6New York · 87-88°NOLOSS-$23.19
Jun 7Austin · 87-88°NOWIN+$1.05
Jun 10Minneapolis · 92-93°NOWIN+$19.97
Jun 10Denver · 90-91°NOWIN+$0.75
Jun 10Boston · 82-83°NOWIN+$0.19
Jun 10Atlanta · 92-93°NOWIN+$2.43
Jun 11Chicago · 88-89°NOWIN+$2.62
Jun 11Atlanta · 95-96°NOWIN+$2.43
Jun 11Denver · 80-81°NOWIN+$0.71
Jun 11Dallas · 99-100°NOWIN+$0.28
Jun 12San Antonio · 94-95°NOLOSS-$4.83
Jun 12New York · <90°NOLOSS-$9.10
Jun 12New York · 90-91°NOLOSS-$14.49
Jun 12Phoenix · 109-110°NOWIN+$2.76
Jun 12Dallas · 95-96°NOWIN+$3.47
Jun 12Miami · >93°NOWIN+$1.82
Jun 12Atlanta · 96-97°NOWIN+$0.37
Jun 12Minneapolis · 84-85°NOWIN+$0.28
Jun 13Oklahoma City · 99-100°NOWIN+$1.46
Jun 13San Antonio · 94-95°NOLOSS-$0.33
Jun 13Dallas · 97-98°NOWIN+$2.19
Jun 14Atlanta · 93-94°NOWIN+$2.19
Jun 14San Antonio · 92-93°NOWIN+$0.48
Jun 14Denver · 62-63°NOWIN+$2.19
Jun 14Boston · 87-88°NOWIN+$1.52
Jun 15Philadelphia · 82-83°NOWIN+$0.09
Jun 15San Antonio · 87-88°NOWIN+$1.94
Jun 16Phoenix · 113-114°NOWIN+$1.69
Jun 16San Antonio · 89-90°NOLOSS-$0.33
Jun 16Dallas · 94-95°NOWIN+$0.09
Jun 16Philadelphia · 83-84°NOWIN+$0.39
Jun 16Atlanta · 80-81°NOWIN+$0.59
Jun 17Phoenix · 113-114°NOWIN+$0.37
Jun 17Chicago · 73-74°NOWIN+$0.07
Jun 18Chicago · 77-78°NOWIN+$0.15
Jun 18New York · 83-84°NOWIN+$0.28
Jun 18Dallas · 100-101°NOWIN+$2.19
Jun 19Oklahoma City · 87-88°NOWIN+$3.45
Jun 19Atlanta · 88-89°NOLOSS-$37.01
Jun 19Boston · 87-88°NOWIN+$1.72
Jun 24New York · 84-85°NOWIN+$2.25
Jun 25Dallas · 97-98°NOWIN+$0.51
Jun 25Philadelphia · 90-91°NOWIN+$0.18
Jun 25Oklahoma City · 95-96°NOWIN+$1.82
Jun 25Boston · 85-86°NOWIN+$0.45
Jun 26Philadelphia · 91-92°NOWIN+$3.45
Jun 26Chicago · 76-77°NOWIN+$1.46
Jun 27Philadelphia · 83-84°NOWIN+$1.88
Jun 27Dallas · 101-102°NOWIN+$1.88
Jun 27New York · 82-83°NOWIN+$1.82
Jun 28Dallas · 102-103°NOWIN+$0.72
Jun 28Philadelphia · 85-86°NOWIN+$2.71
Jun 28Boston · 77-78°NOWIN+$1.54
Jun 28Atlanta · 90°NOWIN+$3.59
Jun 29Boston · 82-83°NOWIN+$1.81
Jun 29Minneapolis · 100-101°NOWIN+$0.14
Jun 29Los Angeles · <70°NOWIN+$2.19
Jun 30Denver · 95-96°NOWIN+$0.07
Jun 30Dallas · 101-102°NOWIN+$0.02
Jul 1Dallas · 102-103°NOWIN+$2.82
Jul 1Denver · 92-93°NOWIN+$1.82
Jul 1Boston · 99-100°NOWIN+$1.46
Jul 1Austin · <93°NOWIN+$1.13
Jul 2Miami · >94°NOWIN+$1.81
Jul 2Denver · 93-94°NOWIN+$4.33
Jul 3Minneapolis · 89-90°NOWIN+$1.93
Jul 4Chicago · 89-90°NOWIN+$2.19
Jul 4Oklahoma City · 98°NOWIN+$6.60
Jul 5Boston · 85-86°NOWIN+$0.68
Jul 5Chicago · 81-82°NOWIN+$2.62
Jul 6Minneapolis · 85-86°NOWIN+$2.74
Jul 6Atlanta · 93-94°NOWIN+$5.49
Jul 6New York · 79-80°NOWIN+$0.32
Jul 6Austin · <94°NOWIN+$6.94
Jul 7Boston · 71-72°NOWIN+$4.04
Jul 7Minneapolis · 86°NOLOSS-$13.21
Jul 7Austin · 94-95°NOWIN+$8.02
Jul 7New York · 77-78°NOWIN+$1.54
Jul 7Denver · 91-92°NOWIN+$6.99
Jul 8Oklahoma City · 97°NOWIN+$2.99
Jul 8Minneapolis · 84-85°NOWIN+$3.13
Jul 9Denver · 84-85°NOWIN+$1.79
Jul 9Washington DC · 91-92°NOWIN+$1.95
Jul 9Philadelphia · 87-88°NOWIN+$3.84
Jul 10Minneapolis · 83-84°NOWIN+$1.90
Jul 10Philadelphia · 92-93°NOWIN+$7.64
Jul 10Boston · 91-92°NOWIN+$0.71
Jul 11Austin · 97-98°NOWIN+$2.30
Jul 11Boston · 85-86°NOWIN+$1.54
Jul 11Oklahoma City · 93°NOWIN+$2.19
Jul 11Washington DC · 82°NOWIN+$1.20
Jul 11Atlanta · 87-88°NOWIN+$4.10
Jul 12Austin · 96-97°NOLOSS-$29.67
Jul 12Philadelphia · 90-91°NOWIN+$1.52
Jul 12Oklahoma City · 94-95°NOWIN+$2.63
Jul 13Austin · 95-96°NOWIN+$4.07
Jul 13Atlanta · 87-88°NOWIN+$2.34
Jul 13Philadelphia · 89-90°NOWIN+$5.25
Jul 13Washington DC · 82-83°NOWIN+$2.29
Jul 13Dallas · 93-94°NOWIN+$1.82
Jul 14Atlanta · 85-86°NOLOSS-$22.10
Jul 14New York · 90-91°NOLOSS-$13.40
Jul 14San Antonio · 87-88°NOWIN+$3.62
Jul 14Austin · 85-86°NOWIN+$2.32
Jul 14Denver · 99-100°NOWIN+$0.19
Jul 15Phoenix · 104°NOWIN+$3.68
Jul 15Dallas · 93-94°NOWIN+$3.84
Jul 16Washington DC · 103-104°NOWIN+$2.25
Jul 16San Antonio · 83°NOWIN+$1.97
Jul 16Denver · 95-96°NOWIN+$2.62
Jul 16Oklahoma City · 94-95°NOWIN+$0.07
Jul 17Boston · 88-89°NOWIN+$6.21
Jul 17Oklahoma City · 91-92°NOWIN+$2.22
Jul 18Phoenix · 101-102°NOWIN+$4.04
Jul 18Denver · 97-98°NOWIN+$0.06
Jul 18New York · >86°NOWIN+$1.82
Jul 18Dallas · 99-100°NOWIN+$5.71
Jul 18Oklahoma City · 96-97°NOWIN+$6.84
Jul 19Dallas · 101-102°NOWIN+$2.75
Jul 19Atlanta · 96-97°NOWIN+$1.95
Jul 19Philadelphia · 88-89°NOWIN+$4.73
Jul 19New York · 86-87°NOWIN+$0.28
Jul 20Dallas · 105-106°NOWIN+$2.82
Jul 20Phoenix · 100-101°NOWIN+$0.47
Jul 21New York · 85-86°NOWIN+$2.30
Jul 21Chicago · 90-91°NOWIN+$2.32
Jul 21Philadelphia · 81-82°NOWIN+$4.56
Jul 21Atlanta · 94-95°NOWIN+$4.04
Jul 21Denver · 89-90°NOWIN+$0.84
Jul 22San Antonio · 98-99°NOWIN+$2.79
Jul 22Boston · 80-81°NOWIN+$4.60
Jul 22Denver · 90-91°NOWIN+$2.19
Jul 23Boston · 84-85°NOWIN+$1.82
Jul 23Dallas · 104-105°NOWIN+$1.95
Jul 23Phoenix · 106-107°NOWIN+$0.19
Jul 24Atlanta · 89-90°NOWIN+$5.99
Jul 24Boston · 85-86°NOWIN+$1.56
Jul 25Atlanta · 90-91°NOLOSS-$20.56
Jul 25Boston · 80-81°NOWIN+$1.45
Jul 25Minneapolis · 98-99°NOWIN+$0.26
Jul 25Philadelphia · 89-90°NOWIN+$0.42
Jul 26Miami · >94°NOWIN+$1.82
Jul 26Chicago · <89°NOWIN+$6.46
Jul 26Dallas · 106-107°NOWIN+$0.70
Jul 26Minneapolis · 94-95°NOWIN+$1.96
Jul 26Las Vegas · 115-116°NOWIN+$0.08
Jul 27Washington DC · 93-94°NOWIN+$1.83
Jul 27Denver · <93°NOLOSS-$14.27
Jul 27Miami · >94°NOWIN+$2.34
Jul 28Washington DC · 88-89°NOLOSS-$16.12
222 trades · 201 wins · 21 losses 90.5% +$178.11

Past performance is not indicative of future results. Prediction-market trading involves risk of loss, including the loss of your entire stake. 3rd Eyes publishes research and signals for informational and educational purposes only and does not provide individualized financial, investment, or trading advice. You are solely responsible for your own trading decisions. Results shown reflect a specific, limited live window and small position sizes and may not be representative of any other period.

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