Position Sizing & Risk Tiers

Same signal goes to every subscriber. What changes is the stake. Pick a tier, see the stop-loss mechanics, model your scenario. Everything to size a position lives on this page.

Choose your aggression level

Same signal. Three ways to play it.

Every subscriber gets identical signals at the same time. What changes is how much you stake, based on the signal's win-probability and your personal risk appetite.

๐ŸŸข
Safe
Win-probability โ‰ฅ 93%
  • โœ“โ‰ฅ10ยฐF buffer inland ยท โ‰ฅ8ยฐF coastal
  • โœ“All ensemble members unanimous ยท ฯƒ โ‰ค 1.2ยฐF
  • โœ“HRRR within 1.5ยฐF of GFS consensus
  • โœ“NO price 93-97ยข (high premium, low risk)
  • โœ“Position size: 1-2% of bankroll per trade
Track record
live at /track
RECOMMENDED
๐ŸŸก
Medium
Win-probability โ‰ฅ 88%
  • โœ“โ‰ฅ7ยฐF buffer inland ยท โ‰ฅ7ยฐF coastal
  • โœ“All ensemble members unanimous ยท ฯƒ โ‰ค 2ยฐF
  • โœ“HRRR within 2.5ยฐF of GFS consensus
  • โœ“NO price 88-97ยข
  • โœ“Position size: 2-3% of bankroll per trade
Track record
live at /track
๐Ÿ”ด
Aggressive
Win-probability โ‰ฅ 85%
  • โœ“โ‰ฅ5ยฐF buffer required (tighter margin)
  • โœ“All ensemble members unanimous ยท ฯƒ โ‰ค 2.5ยฐF
  • โœ“More frequent signals, smaller edge per trade
  • โœ“NO price 85-97ยข
  • โœ“Position size: 3-5% of bankroll per trade
Track record
live at /track
๐Ÿ›ก๏ธ
What happens if a trade goes wrong?

Every position is monitored every 30 seconds, and the stop sits a fixed 20ยข below your entry - wide enough to ride out intraday noise but not a genuine forecast miss. On a 95ยข buy: a slip to ~85ยข fires an immediate Telegram alert, and a fall to 75ยข auto-closes the position - capping the loss at roughly 20ยข per contract (~21%), regardless of how much time is left.

85ยข threshold
Telegram warning alert fires
75ยข stop
20ยข below entry · position auto-closed at the stop.
Rest of bankroll
Untouched - only this position's stake is ever at risk.

Losses do occur. The hard position-size caps exist so a single bad trade can't erase a long run of wins. Every individual loss (date, market, P&L) is listed in the full per-trade ledger at /track.

Bankroll & sizing

Size your trades. Protect your bankroll.

Set your bankroll and the share you'll stake per trade. We'll show your suggested position size, your worst-case loss per trade, and where steady, disciplined sizing could take your bankroll over time. One bankroll - no slots, no compounding ladders.

โš ๏ธ Reality check on defaults: Current observed frequency is ~5-8 signals/week total (Kalshi same-day liquidity is the bottleneck while we expand venue coverage). The calculator defaults to that realistic pace and our exchange-verified 87.7% win rate; slide the inputs up or down to model your own scenario. See the live, per-trade record at /track. Every figure here is an expected value, not a promise.
Quick preset:
1%2%50%
What different levels look like: 1-5% conservative (easily survives losing streaks); 5-15% moderate (common on small bankrolls and when running multiple positions at once); 15-30% aggressive (single losses are felt); 30-50% high (one bad day dents the stack meaningfully). Pick what fits your risk comfort.
1/wk5/week15/wk
82ยข90ยข98ยข
50%88%97%
1 week12 weeks52 wk
โœ… Fixed-fractional sizing: this models a flat stake of your chosen % on every trade. The pre-set stop caps the worst case at roughly 20ยข per contract (about 20-24% of position depending on your entry price). As your bankroll grows you simply re-size to the same % - that's how disciplined bankroll management grows steadily, without ever risking more than you planned on any single trade.
At 90ยข NO: gross +$0.10/contract โ†’ net +$0.09 after fee. At 95ยข NO: gross +$0.05 โ†’ net +$0.04. The lower your entry, the more profit per win.
โš ๏ธ Hypothetical - not guaranteed. The calculator shows the expected outcome at the win rate you enter - it's a sensitivity tool, not a forecast. Our live, per-trade record is at /track. Variance is real; expect losing streaks. Only risk discretionary funds you can afford to lose entirely.
Suggested size per trade
$0
Your bankroll$0
Worst-case loss / trade$0
Signals over 12 wks0
Expected wins0
Expected losses (stops)0
Projected profit (expected)$0
Projected bankroll$0